Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x142a…31b6 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$122
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$111
sports 6% −$109
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 43% -13.9%
≤30d 29 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 45% -19.4%
≤90d 41 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 44% -11.5%
all 41 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 44% -11.5%
10% -20.5% 39% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 27% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$64 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage58d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $282 −$84 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$34 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$13 +135%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $194 −$192 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $54 +$75 +138%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $318 −$113 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $208 −$195 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $130 +$101 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $52 +$53 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $98 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $2 +$5 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $42 +$68 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 27 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 27 $117 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 27 $167 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 27 $270 −$119 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 27 $86 +$42 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 27 $89 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 27 $125 −$47 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 26 $448 +$141 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 26 $212 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 26 $551 +$77 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 26 $307 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 26 $115 +$33 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $194 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $129 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $65 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $54 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $19 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $101 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $119 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records