Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x142c…1a63 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 372d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$202
14 days+$202
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$117
economics 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +34.7% +21.8% 100% 100% +18.0%
≤30d 4 +34.7% +21.8% 100% 100% +18.0%
≤90d 4 +34.7% +21.8% 100% 100% +18.0%
all 10 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 60% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 60% +0.8%
10% -23.7% 50% -8.8%
15% -31.0% 30% -17.6%
20% -37.8% 30% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$36 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage372d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $233 +$61 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $192 +$41 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $148 +$43 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $92 +$57 +62%
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision? Sep 17 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Aug 17 $20 +$11 +56%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Aug 17 $20 +$28 +138%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $34 −$5 -16%
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Aug 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Jun 08 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $293 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $233 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $233 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $192 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $192 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $148 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $148 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $92 2h
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 271d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev BUY Du Plessis 31¢ $5 301d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev SELL Chimaev 69¢ $19 301d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev SELL Du Plessis 30¢ $9 301d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev BUY Du Plessis 31¢ $9 301d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev BUY Chimaev 71¢ $20 302d
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico BUY Murphy 42¢ $20 302d
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates BUY Neal 36¢ $20 302d
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page BUY Page 64¢ $20 302d
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley BUY OMalley 31¢ $99 372d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records