Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x142e…9033 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 35% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -5.2% -14.3% 35% 0% -10.0%
all 32 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage478d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $29 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $11 $0 +3%
Sabres vs. Lightning Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 04 $14 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $29 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $26 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $1 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $10 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $19 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $18 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 100 history records