Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x1432…ad69 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$7
politics 34% −$9
economics 12% −$2
culture 12% −$2
world 5% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$816) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage85d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,295 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,238 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $2,157 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,267 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $771 −$1 -0%
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $809 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $816 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 27 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL No 100¢ $47 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,292 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,257 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $125 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $312 3d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,337 3d
Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records