trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 12¢ | $70 | $73 | +$3 (+5%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Solana Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Down | 52¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$4 | +414% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Mar 23 | $9 | −$4 | -40% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Mar 23 | $95 | −$27 | -28% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Mar 17 | $10 | −$8 | -83% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | Mar 17 | $6 | −$4 | -77% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Feb 15 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? | Feb 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? | Feb 14 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 20% | 20% | -5.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 20% | 20% | -5.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 11% | 11% | -40.9% |
| all | 12 | -32.9% | -39.3% | 17% | 17% | -39.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.3% | 17% | -39.3% |
| 10% | -45.1% | 8% | -45.1% |
| 15% | -50.4% | 8% | -50.4% |
| 20% | -55.3% | 8% | -55.2% |