Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1436…0121 sports 442 markets active 6h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,049 (+6%) realized +$16,292 · open −$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%276W / 152L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1,134est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days+$1,456
14 days+$6,204
30 days+$14,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$18,248
politics 1% −$2,497
other 1% −$661
economics 0% +$41
culture 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -16.6% -24.5% 55% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 296 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 60% -0.8%
≤90d 424 -9.9% -18.4% 64% 57% -4.1%
all 428 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 57% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 57% -4.0%
10% -25.2% 42% -13.2%
15% -32.4% 29% -21.6%
20% -39.0% 16% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$159 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$7,858
Realized+$16,292
Unrealized−$243
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses276 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1,134
Open positions9
Markets (closed)428 / 442
History coverage230d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $4,100 $4,058 −$43 (-1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 89¢ 86¢ $3,800 $3,658 −$142 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Karmine Corp 80¢ 71¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 68¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 79¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $38 −$38 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$27 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $451 +$104 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $402 −$400 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $690 +$61 +9%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 +$6 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$56 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$20 +197%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $78 −$78 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$17 +113%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,113 +$230 +21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1,152 +$13 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $507 +$405 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$29 +74%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,024 +$347 +12%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $502 +$68 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $18 +$3 +18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $6,013 +$461 +8%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$12 +129%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$58 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$67 +110%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$8 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 +$54 +83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$23 +76%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $13,999 +$2,095 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $947 +$289 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $553 +$4 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$45 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $5 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $5 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $10 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $5 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $5 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $10 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ $10 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $8 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $50 6h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $25 17h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $101 18h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $100 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $5 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 18h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $201 18h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $502 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $5 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $29 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $20 24h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $10 24h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $5 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,857.52 · official $7,857.52 (match) · 1905 history records