Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1437…acfe
crypto · 341 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,440 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,856 · open +$383
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,884
Realized−$1,856
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses51 / 413
Open positions86
Markets (closed)464 / 341
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day278.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 86 History 464 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,297
7 days−$3,127
14 days−$1,856
30 days−$1,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 49¢ 80¢ $931 $1,520 +$589 (+63%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 35¢ 43¢ $883 $1,078 +$195 (+22%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 2¢ 58¢ $37 $1,074 +$1,036 (+2797%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 31¢ 48¢ $397 $630 +$234 (+59%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $331 $386 +$55 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 81¢ $207 $332 +$125 (+60%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 44¢ 48¢ $240 $262 +$22 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 1¢ 0¢ $563 $209 −$354 (-63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 22¢ $126 $202 +$77 (+61%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 49¢ 98¢ $98 $197 +$99 (+101%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 5¢ 2¢ $646 $183 −$463 (-72%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $132 $160 +$27 (+21%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 17¢ 4¢ $479 $126 −$353 (-74%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 1¢ 0¢ $535 $123 −$412 (-77%)
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $92 $122 +$29 (+32%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 44¢ $138 $119 −$19 (-14%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 54¢ $43 $90 +$47 (+109%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+4%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 1¢ 1¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 62¢ $56 $62 +$6 (+10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 30¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 1¢ 0¢ $393 $46 −$346 (-88%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 67¢ 72¢ $33 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 5, 4PM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 8PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,400 on May 4, 7PM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 2,385 on May 5, 4PM ET? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above 81,800 on May 5, 4PM ET? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 83,200 on May 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$2,381
tech 23% −$1,666
crypto 23% +$833
politics 8% +$84
world 8% +$295
finance 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $3 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $7 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $10 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $10 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $10 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 3¢ $3 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 3¢ $0 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 0¢ $10 7m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 9m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $17 10m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 4¢ $4 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 4¢ $0 15m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 17m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $1 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 0¢ $10 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 0¢ $0 20m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $22 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $0 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $40 22m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $10 31m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $17 47m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $8 48m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 0¢ $8 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 413 -86.2% -87.5% 3% 3% -81.8%
≤30d 464 -50.7% -55.4% 11% 11% -44.2%
≤90d 464 -50.7% -55.4% 11% 11% -44.2%
all 464 -50.7% -55.4% 11% 11% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.4% 11% -44.2%
10% ← realistic here -59.7% 10% -49.5%
15% -63.6% 9% -54.4%
20% -67.1% 9% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,884.38 · official $7,884.31 (match) · 3500 history records