Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x143d…d238 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%43W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$5
crypto 14% +$1
other 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -1.7% -11.0% 74% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses43 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage525d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $23 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $34 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $4,602 −$5 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 62d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 95¢ $45 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $6 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 183d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $24 211d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $38 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $35 242d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $24 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 334d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $48 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.33 · official $71.33 (match) · 125 history records