Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x143f…3c63 other 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,167 (+1%) realized +$1,167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 149L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,247per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$29
14 days−$100
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$187
politics 34% −$112
sports 11% +$1,444
culture 2% −$8
economics 2% −$4
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 -4.4% -13.5% 7% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 121 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 4% -9.2%
all 181 +1.1% -8.5% 18% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 11% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 11% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,918) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$6 · ×10.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$1,167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,247
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $116 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,795 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,757 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,644 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,348 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,132 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,959 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,485 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,466 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5,900 −$8 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,247 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $982 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,322 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,743 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $514 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $60 +$18 +31%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,332 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $542 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $410 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,210 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $260 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $326 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $320 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,208 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $367 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $331 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $265 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $265 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 25h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $432 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $432 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $424 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $424 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $493 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $494 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $533 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $534 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $532 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $533 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $370 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $371 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $355 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $355 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $507 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $508 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $515 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $516 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $559 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $560 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.52 · official $116.52 (match) · 637 history records