Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1440…b5fb crypto 1407 markets active 2d ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%514W / 1071L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$932
7 days−$933
14 days−$1,009
30 days−$863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -89.4% -90.4% 4% 3% -79.9%
≤30d 729 -25.3% -32.4% 5% 3% -14.3%
≤90d 1585 -15.6% -23.6% 32% 31% -14.5%
all 1585 -15.6% -23.6% 32% 31% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 31% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 28% -22.7%
15% -37.6% 25% -30.2%
20% -43.7% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses514 / 1071
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1585 / 1407
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1585 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records