Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1441…0b51 crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%168W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$7
other 23% +$1
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -3.1% -12.3% 86% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 195 -3.1% -12.3% 86% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 195 -3.1% -12.3% 86% 11% -9.6%
all 195 -3.1% -12.3% 86% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 11% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses168 / 27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)195 / 210
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? No 77¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Up 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 8m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 18m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 18m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 22m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 23m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.47 · official $16.47 (match) · 496 history records