Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1441…b235 other 16 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,381 (-30%) realized −$2,381 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,853
other 20% −$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -35.4% -41.6% 6% 6% -38.1%
≤30d 16 -35.4% -41.6% 6% 6% -38.1%
≤90d 16 -35.4% -41.6% 6% 6% -38.1%
all 16 -35.4% -41.6% 6% 6% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 6% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 6% -44.0%
15% -52.3% 6% -49.4%
20% -57.0% 6% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,547 vs −$338 · ×7.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $398 −$233 -58%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,859 −$3,859 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 21 $72 −$20 -28%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $172 −$31 -18%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $64 −$47 -73%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $70 −$4 -6%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $69 −$3 -5%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $84 −$6 -8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $168 −$18 -11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $405 −$25 -6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $239 −$219 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $590 −$561 -95%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $1,760 +$2,547 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 18¢ $1 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $357 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 17¢ $166 31h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $141 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $3 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $761 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Ecuador $0 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Ecuador $17 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $66 31h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 34¢ $66 31h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $78 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $150 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 38¢ $380 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $708 32h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $2,030 32h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 34¢ $69 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 34h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $19 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $29 34h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $239 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $20 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $40 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $4 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $8 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $20 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $6 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records