Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1442…3265 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$41
sports 21% −$29
politics 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
culture 7% −$6
world 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage134d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $332 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $224 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $227 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $55 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 10h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 12h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 28h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 30h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 31h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 32h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 39h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 39h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 40h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.13 · official $55.13 (match) · 1431 history records