Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1446…bc83 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 26% −$2
politics 15% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 6% -9.8%
all 41 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage284d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $83 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $41 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$5 -18%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 +$2 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $26 +$11 +41%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 6h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 13h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $38 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $42 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $41 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $41 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $41 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $19 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $14 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 183 history records