Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

14 0x1447…cde4 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$65 (+12%) realized +$67 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-39.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-33.4%	-39.8%	50%	33%	+3.6%
≤30d	6	-33.4%	-39.8%	50%	33%	+3.6%
≤90d	6	-33.4%	-39.8%	50%	33%	+3.6%
all	6	-33.4%	-39.8%	50%	33%	+3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.8%	33%	+3.6%
10%	-45.5%	33%	-6.4%
15%	-50.8%	33%	-15.4%
20%	-55.6%	0%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$19 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$154

Realized+$67

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage3d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$155	$154	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 24	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$130	+$61	+47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$118	+$12	+10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$24	−$24	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$42	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$159	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	17h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$23	17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$130	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$118	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$24	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$142	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$100	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.92 · official $153.92 (match) · 13 history records