Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1448…e868 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,437 (-10%) realized −$2,433 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,580
7 days−$5,683
14 days−$2,722
30 days−$2,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,731
other 1% +$47
crypto 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 50% -37.1%
≤30d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 52% -20.1%
≤90d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 52% -20.1%
all 44 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 52% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 52% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 52% -27.8%
15% -20.1% 52% -34.8%
20% -27.9% 48% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$723) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$627 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$2,433
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs GLYPH 58¢ 56¢ $463 $441 −$22 (-5%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 54¢ 57¢ $304 $321 +$17 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $470 +$744 +158%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $558 +$560 +100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $148 −$146 -99%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $294 −$290 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,099 +$1,535 +140%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $155 +$72 +47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $919 −$900 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $153 +$149 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $307 +$429 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$14 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,598 −$1,575 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $152 −$149 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $467 −$457 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $1,739 −$1,739 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,645 −$1,645 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $319 +$182 +57%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $577 +$344 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 18 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $95 +$144 +152%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$35 +144%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,124 +$1,555 +73%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $579 −$579 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $723 −$723 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,523 −$1,523 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $283 +$154 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $349 +$222 +64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,403 +$1,114 +79%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $122 −$4 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $604 +$610 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2,376 +$1,241 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 59¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 59¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $81 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 55¢ $154 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 54¢ $154 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $5 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 15h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $470 21h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 54¢ $148 22h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 50¢ $281 22h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 49¢ $277 22h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 57¢ $147 22h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $147 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $15 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 60¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 60¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 69¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 69¢ $101 37h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 68¢ $14 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1,099 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $485 46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $434 47h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.29 · official $838.29 (match) · 140 history records