Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x144b…6caa
sports · 442 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$130 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$148 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$230
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses225 / 203
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions17
Markets (closed)428 / 442
History coverage63d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 17 History 428 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days−$66
14 days+$166
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 78¢ 81¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 41¢ 14¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-65%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Belgium 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-82%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 68¢ 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bradley Barcola be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$7 +81%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $117 +$51 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 −$39 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $19 −$8 -44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11 +$4 +32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 +$4 +116%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $4 +$7 +182%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $59 +$120 +203%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $8 +$6 +71%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 +$6 +59%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $6 −$2 -34%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $3 +$2 +53%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $2 +$1 +41%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $1 $0 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $72 −$52 -72%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 −$6 -64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$3 -58%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 +$2 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 +$2 +165%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$209
other 11% −$74
politics 3% +$2
world 2% +$3
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 85¢ $1 35m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 36m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 38m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 39m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 42m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 43m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 44m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 45m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 45m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 46m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 46m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 47m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 47m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 48m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 48m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 48m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 48m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 49m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 50m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 51m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 52m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 53m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 56m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 56m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 57m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 59m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 59m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +0.1% -9.4% 51% 41% -14.2%
≤30d 382 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 40% -4.5%
≤90d 428 -0.6% -10.0% 53% 37% -5.0%
all 428 -0.6% -10.0% 53% 37% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 37% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 32% -14.1%
15% -26.5% 27% -22.4%
20% -33.7% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.81 · official $229.81 (match) · 3500 history records