Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144b…d891 crypto 476 markets active 6h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%313W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -5.8% -14.8% 64% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 476 -3.4% -12.6% 66% 51% -10.3%
≤90d 476 -3.4% -12.6% 66% 51% -10.3%
all 476 -3.4% -12.6% 66% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 51% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 22% -26.8%
20% -35.6% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses313 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$8 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1241 history records