Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x144b…465e crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$600 (-4%) realized −$577 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$11
politics 39% −$591
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 0% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -14.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -22.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -29.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$297 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$2,505
Realized−$577
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage617d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,290 $1,283 −$7 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $565 $563 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $533 $528 −$5 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $140 $131 −$9 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $645 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,281 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,142 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,376 +$6 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Feb 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $506 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,025 −$593 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $533 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $565 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,290 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $599 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,281 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $645 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,376 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 107d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $67 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $20 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $77 122d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $82 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 285d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $55 285d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $8 285d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $6 285d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $7 285d
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $6 285d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 285d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 285d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 100¢ $6 285d
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12? BUY No 100¢ $6 285d
Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12? BUY No 100¢ $5 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,504.85 · official $2,504.85 (match) · 73 history records