Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x144c…6aa4 other 23 markets active 8h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -9.3%
≤30d 18 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -9.3%
≤90d 18 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -9.3%
all 18 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -9.3%
10% -25.4% 44% -18.0%
15% -32.6% 44% -25.9%
20% -39.2% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.72 · official $23.72 (match) · 42 history records