Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144d…e1e8 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$7
other 19% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 52 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 8% -11.3%
10% -22.0% 6% -19.8%
15% -29.5% 6% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage178d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 13 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $2 +$2 +73%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 13 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 07 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 06 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 05 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 05 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 05 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 01 $6 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 01 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 01 $14 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 01 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 01 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 01 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 01 $12 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 01 $3 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 01 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 01 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 31 $5 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 30 $13 +$3 +20%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 30 $5 +$5 +85%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Dec 29 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 29 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 29 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 161d
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 161d
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 161d
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 162d
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 162d
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 162d
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 162d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.29 · official $84.29 (match) · 273 history records