Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x144e…5e08
other · 64 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$135 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$190
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)59 / 64
History coverage3d
Avg bet$627
Trades / day1137.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 10 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? Down 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 12 $1 −$4 -646%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? Jun 12 $0 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $3,965 +$17 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3,196 +$41 +1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,103 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,632 −$2 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $271 +$19 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $241 +$7 +3%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $546 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $369 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $598 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $259 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $694 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $541 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $593 +$19 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $544 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $39 +$9 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 +$19 +100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,360 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $792 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $6,460 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $597 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $192 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $103 +$20 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $346 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$14
world 23% +$36
politics 20% +$24
economics 11% +$67
tech 10% −$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $24 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $48 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $40 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $40 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $27 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $48 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $25 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 19m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $27 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $27 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $27 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $31 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $27 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $22 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $34 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $24 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $48 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $96 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 5% -9.1%
≤30d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 5% -9.1%
all 59 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1137.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.51 · official $186.59 · 3500 history records