Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144e…d596 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$227 (+6%) realized +$172 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%58W / 45L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$51
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$114
other 37% +$73
crypto 3% +$11
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 53% 40% -16.4%
≤30d 60 -1.6% -10.9% 65% 33% -8.7%
≤90d 103 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 32% -5.1%
all 103 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 32% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -5.1%
10% -24.0% 25% -14.2%
15% -31.3% 21% -22.5%
20% -38.1% 17% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses58 / 45
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions13
Markets (closed)103 / 116
History coverage44d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $198 $216 +$18 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $87 $150 +$62 (+72%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $84 $74 −$9 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $80 $69 −$11 (-13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $27 −$26 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $59 −$32 -54%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$2 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $57 −$25 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$24 +45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $74 +$2 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $125 +$25 +20%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 −$28 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 −$5 -17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $24 +$26 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $125 +$10 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$17 -44%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $210 +$13 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $15 +$26 +173%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will England win? Jun 07 $40 +$10 +26%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +22%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $8 +$9 +116%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $3 +$2 +44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $9 $0 -3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 38h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $2 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $4 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $5 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $16 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 15¢ $1 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 15¢ $5 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 15¢ $1 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 16¢ $8 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 19¢ $10 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 25¢ $8 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 25¢ $5 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $5 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $3 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $5 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $9 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $47 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $32 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $76 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $57 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $66 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $29 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $31 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.57 · official $657.57 (match) · 319 history records