Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1452…449c politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +150% what you keep after slip
Net edge+150%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$85
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$7
other 13% −$3
world 11% +$9
economics 6% −$16
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+149.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -72.8% -75.4% 0% 0% -95.0%
≤30d 4 +175.7% +149.5% 25% 25% -20.1%
≤90d 4 +175.7% +149.5% 25% 25% -20.1%
all 4 +175.7% +149.5% 25% 25% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +149.5% 25% -20.1%
10% +125.6% 25% -27.7%
15% +103.8% 25% -34.7%
20% +83.8% 25% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +176% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$28 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,394
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions52
Markets (closed)4 / 56
History coverage31d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No 72¢ 71¢ $317 $311 −$6 (-2%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $93 $106 +$13 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? No 88¢ 88¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $78 $84 +$6 (+8%)
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? No 57¢ 65¢ $55 $62 +$8 (+14%)
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $53 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? No 75¢ 64¢ $62 $52 −$10 (-16%)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 8¢ 22¢ $16 $46 +$29 (+182%)
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $57 $39 −$18 (-31%)
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $38 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat? No 50¢ 62¢ $26 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? No 70¢ 72¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $52 $28 −$24 (-47%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $19 $26 +$6 (+33%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No 69¢ 69¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+22%)
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 66¢ 49¢ $21 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 37¢ 37¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 23 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 10 $9 +$73 +854%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 1h
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? SELL No 6¢ $5 3h
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $286 3h
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 4h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $80 4h
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY No 37¢ $13 5h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY No 11¢ $6 5h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY No 11¢ $3 6h
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? BUY No 48¢ $2 17h
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY Yes 55¢ $77 21h
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY Yes 60¢ $17 23h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 26h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 45¢ $6 29h
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral BUY No 57¢ $56 29h
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 52¢ $21 30h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 41h
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 44h
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 44h
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 66¢ $21 46h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $56 47h
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 47h
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 47h
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 47h
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,393.79 · official $1,393.28 (match) · 95 history records