Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1455…75ab other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-14%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$72
other 19% $0
politics 10% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -6.3% -15.3% 3% 0% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -22.1%
10% -23.4% 0% -29.5%
15% -30.8% 0% -36.3%
20% -37.6% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage547d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Nov 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Oct 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jul 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Rangers Apr 08 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 14 $1 $0 -13%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Feb 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $145 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 56d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 56d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 79d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 79d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 115d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $11 144d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $11 144d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 181d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 181d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $9 206d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $9 206d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 232d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $12 232d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 263d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 265d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 292d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 292d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 292d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 305d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 305d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $5 329d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 329d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 330d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records