Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1456…edb2 crypto 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (222 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$94 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%523W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day221.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$210
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (222 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 655 -23.3% -30.6% 52% 32% -28.4%
≤30d 915 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 35% -23.4%
≤90d 915 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 35% -23.4%
all 915 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 35% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover221.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 35% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 22% -30.7%
15% -39.2% 14% -37.4%
20% -45.1% 8% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses523 / 392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)915 / 755
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day221.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 95¢ 84¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$21 -513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$31 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$12 -700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$36 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$70 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$10 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$9 -260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.45 · official $9.55 · 3500 history records