Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1457…b167
sports · 49 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$117 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$105 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$577
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses33 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage151d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 10 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $541 $553 +$12 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $12 −$7 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $9 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $3 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 $0 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 07 $1 $0 +29%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $30 +$1 +4%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 29 $39 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 17 $535 +$42 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 22 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 22 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 22 $262 +$6 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 17 $5 −$3 -61%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 13 $723 +$49 +7%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jan 26 $4 $0 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 19 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 50% +$63
finance 38% +$58
sports 7% −$3
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
other 1% +$1
politics 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 7h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 28h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 43¢ $5 9d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 97¢ $532 9d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 88¢ $3 10d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 89¢ $10 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $3 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 36¢ $4 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $2 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 97¢ $5 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $109 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $2 23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $10 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $10 25d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $3 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -58.9%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 15% -9.1%
≤90d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 21% -5.6%
all 39 +0.8% -8.8% 85% 21% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 21% -4.8%
10% -17.5% 15% -13.9%
15% -25.5% 8% -22.2%
20% -32.8% 3% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.25 · official $577.26 (match) · 134 history records