Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x145a…5e86 sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,666 (+5%) realized +$8,804 · open +$862
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 62L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,528per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$497est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,603
7 days+$3,451
14 days+$2,784
30 days+$2,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2,885
politics 13% +$1,602
sports 12% +$1,138
other 8% −$806
tech 1% +$6,308
finance 1% −$445
economics 0% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 49% +1.3%
≤30d 63 -0.6% -10.0% 49% 46% -1.7%
≤90d 87 -3.9% -13.1% 48% 38% -4.7%
all 122 +15.4% +4.4% 49% 34% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 34% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 26% -12.9%
15% -14.7% 23% -21.3%
20% -23.0% 18% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,165) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$414 vs −$247 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$2,730
Realized+$8,804
Unrealized+$862
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$497
Open positions7
Markets (closed)122 / 129
History coverage174d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $751 $1,174 +$423 (+56%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $450 $833 +$383 (+85%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $300 $638 +$338 (+113%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 26¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $37 $4 −$33 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $120 +$138 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $298 −$295 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $327 +$275 +84%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $530 +$276 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $254 −$254 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$961 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $504 +$244 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$9 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $535 −$141 -26%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $122 +$114 +94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$5 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,011 −$472 -24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $704 −$145 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,000 −$554 -55%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $751 +$729 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $664 +$436 +66%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$185 +92%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 +$75 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $200 −$161 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $807 +$543 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $504 +$104 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,098 +$255 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $604 −$599 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $300 +$668 +223%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $602 +$335 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$116 +163%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $300 +$393 +131%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $601 −$117 -20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $383 +$262 +68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $190 +$87 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $501 −$242 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$69 +138%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,505 −$353 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 +$51 +251%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11,693 +$2,711 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $350 +$103 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 5m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 14m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $435 22m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 23m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 23m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 23m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $212 29m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $25 30m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 40m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 41m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $9 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $23 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $181 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,729.63 · official $2,729.63 (match) · 2051 history records