Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

14 0x145c…9b8a sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$293 (-49%) realized −$108 · open −$185

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$119per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+35.8%	+22.9%	33%	33%	+24.3%
≤30d	3	+35.8%	+22.9%	33%	33%	+24.3%
≤90d	3	+35.8%	+22.9%	33%	33%	+24.3%
all	3	+35.8%	+22.9%	33%	33%	+24.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.9%	33%	+24.3%
10%	+11.1%	33%	+12.4%
15%	+0.4%	33%	+1.5%
20%	-9.5%	33%	-8.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$297 vs −$95 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized−$108

Unrealized−$185

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$119

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Dplus KIA Challengers	41¢	32¢	$150	$115	−$35 (-23%)
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2	Royal Never Give Up	78¢	0¢	$150	$0	−$150 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 21	$97	+$297	+307%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$92	−$90	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	41¢	$153	1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag	BUY Royal Never Give Up	78¢	$151	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	24¢	$97	18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	42¢	$102	18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Aurora Gaming	40¢	$92	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.34 · official $115.34 (match) · 6 history records