Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1464…8748 crypto 469 markets active 0h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,595 (+6%) realized +$4,470 · open −$875
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%186W / 268L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,493
7 days+$4,701
14 days+$6,380
30 days+$2,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$2,465
other 30% +$2,015
finance 27% −$195
sports 3% −$409
tech 1% +$73
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$70
world 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +68.9% +52.8% 57% 57% +118.9%
≤30d 211 -30.2% -36.9% 16% 14% +2.4%
≤90d 353 +4.0% -5.9% 33% 27% -1.5%
all 454 +9.7% -0.7% 41% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 33% -1.1%
10% -10.2% 28% -10.5%
15% -18.9% 24% -19.2%
20% -26.9% 21% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$54 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$1,169
Realized+$4,470
Unrealized−$875
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses186 / 268
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions15
Markets (closed)454 / 469
History coverage363d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 25¢ $210 $506 +$296 (+141%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $842 $317 −$525 (-62%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $541 $145 −$396 (-73%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 18¢ $160 $41 −$119 (-74%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $108 $40 −$68 (-62%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $56 $31 −$25 (-45%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 29¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-45%)
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $23 $8 −$15 (-65%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 15¢ 35¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+133%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 50¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $597 +$1,410 +236%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$46 +216%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$41 +167%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $900 +$1,620 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $922 +$1,126 +122%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $690 +$341 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$18 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$144 +272%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$38 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 11 $650 +$1,975 +304%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $41 −$39 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$21 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$10 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $36 +$93 +257%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $39 −$33 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $35 −$30 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 +$26 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $49 −$46 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $62 −$13 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 +$231 +721%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $76 −$72 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $149 −$142 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $37 +$67 +181%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $496 −$182 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $48 +$17 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $28 −$27 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $25 +$133 +529%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6m
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 32¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 11¢ $11 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 11¢ $11 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,931 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $575 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $215 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 26h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $497 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $51 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,168.62 · official $1,169.59 (match) · 2132 history records