Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1467…4372
sports · 739 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$21,573 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84,473 · open −$377
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,623
Realized−$84,473
Unrealized−$377
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses384 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$23,171
Open positions3
Markets (closed)733 / 739
History coverage135d
Avg bet$4,594
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 3 History 733 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23,918
7 days+$38,166
14 days−$71,872
30 days−$171,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 57¢ 56¢ $5,000 $4,868 −$132 (-3%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ 48¢ $4,000 $3,958 −$42 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 49¢ 46¢ $4,000 $3,796 −$204 (-5%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 54¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ 0¢ $7,500 $0 −$7,500 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 57¢ 0¢ $2,565 $0 −$2,565 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 56¢ 0¢ $4,800 $0 −$4,800 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 60¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 54¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 41¢ 0¢ $14,350 $0 −$14,350 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 42¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves 54¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $888 $0 −$888 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 59¢ 0¢ $5,200 $0 −$5,200 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime 52¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Thunder 57¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 62¢ 0¢ $11,882 $0 −$11,882 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 47¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $3,100 $0 −$3,100 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 58¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $6,000 $0 −$6,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7,504 +$6,458 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $7,348 +$7,422 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,776 +$11,197 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12,280 +$9,340 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3,048 −$3,000 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $7,593 −$7,500 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $15,142 +$17,397 +115%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $9,221 +$5,950 +64%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $3,939 +$5,289 +134%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $21,553 −$21,362 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $10,687 +$10,872 +102%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $4,999 +$5,696 +114%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5,001 −$4,927 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $4,748 −$4,667 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5,547 −$5,471 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10,000 −$9,861 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $19,431 −$9,395 -48%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $20,624 −$20,317 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $11,997 +$8,650 +72%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $12,018 −$11,882 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $21,384 −$21,112 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $13,369 −$13,183 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $3,041 −$3,000 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $3,567 +$6,217 +174%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $4,576 +$5,641 +123%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $5,264 −$5,200 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $4,960 −$4,900 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $5,074 +$4,833 +95%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $7,764 −$7,665 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5,063 −$5,000 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5,063 −$5,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $3,550 −$3,500 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $3,053 +$4,264 +140%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $3,050 −$3,000 -98%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $3,552 +$3,440 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 02 $3,137 −$3,100 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $3,542 −$3,500 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $4,055 −$4,000 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $3,052 −$3,000 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $4,052 −$4,000 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $2,442 +$3,411 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $3,545 +$2,595 +73%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $923 −$888 -96%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $3,544 −$3,500 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $3,539 +$2,017 +57%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 01 $2,565 −$2,565 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $3,549 +$3,048 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $3,540 +$2,145 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$124,393
other 26% +$30,996
world 1% +$9,435
crypto 0% −$888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tuni BUY 20¢ $2,816 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5,064 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $4,062 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $4,061 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côt BUY 6¢ $749 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $7,348 14h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $7,504 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $6,776 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $21,620 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $12,280 15h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $3,048 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $7,593 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 26¢ $4,600 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $25,908 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $690 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $296 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $3,054 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $228 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $1,962 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $392 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $15,142 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $15,171 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $9,221 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $9,228 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $3,939 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $16,099 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $1 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.7% +20.1% 64% 64% +19.4%
≤30d 124 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 42% -27.8%
≤90d 578 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 52% -12.7%
all 733 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 52% -11.8%
10% -20.1% 52% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 51% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 48% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,622.67 · official $16,100.66 · 3500 history records