Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1467…9755 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$109 (-11%) realized +$7 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$74
other 26% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.0% -25.8% 22% 22% -21.7%
≤30d 9 -18.0% -25.8% 22% 22% -21.7%
≤90d 9 -18.0% -25.8% 22% 22% -21.7%
all 9 -18.0% -25.8% 22% 22% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 22% -21.7%
10% -32.9% 22% -29.2%
15% -39.4% 22% -36.1%
20% -45.3% 22% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$75 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 12¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$10 -53%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $193 +$114 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$104 -52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $113 −$110 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $75 +$289 +384%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $68 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $102 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $211 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $98 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $96 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 9¢ $10 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $51 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $52 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $102 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $365 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $51 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $75 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 21 history records