Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1469…677a other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+7%) realized +$94 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$46
14 days+$57
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$55
sports 23% +$54
crypto 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.6% -3.5% 68% 68% -0.2%
≤30d 38 +4.3% -5.6% 76% 74% -4.5%
≤90d 38 +4.3% -5.6% 76% 74% -4.5%
all 38 +4.3% -5.6% 76% 74% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 74% -4.5%
10% -14.7% 47% -13.6%
15% -22.9% 24% -22.0%
20% -30.5% 18% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$25 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage15d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$22 +85%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $35 +$5 +15%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$17 +55%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$8 +26%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 +$17 +55%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $28 +$6 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $69 +$9 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $34 +$9 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $34 +$11 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $126 +$12 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $49 +$8 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $59 +$10 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $25 29h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $15 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 5d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 6d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 6d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 6d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 6d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.86 · official $61.86 (match) · 83 history records