Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x146a…1071 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-8%) realized −$2 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$4
crypto 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 4 -38.1% -44.0% 25% 25% -16.0%
≤90d 4 -38.1% -44.0% 25% 25% -16.0%
all 4 -38.1% -44.0% 25% 25% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 25% -16.0%
10% -49.4% 25% -24.0%
15% -54.3% 25% -31.3%
20% -58.8% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage21d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$10 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $31 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.69 · official $77.69 (match) · 29 history records