Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x146b…a47c crypto 339 markets active 4d ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-2%) realized −$626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%143W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day71.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$219
14 days+$404
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 39% -11.3%
≤30d 281 +15.8% +4.8% 44% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 339 +9.9% -0.6% 42% 37% -12.6%
all 339 +9.9% -0.6% 42% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 37% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 34% -21.0%
15% -18.8% 30% -28.6%
20% -26.8% 27% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$62 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses143 / 196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)339 / 339
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 339 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $97 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $156 −$151 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $89 −$86 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $197 −$194 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $162 −$159 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $269 −$48 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $173 −$24 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $139 +$123 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$92 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $187 +$29 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $153 −$146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$43 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$63 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $142 −$139 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$53 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $243 +$181 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $181 −$176 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$108 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $95 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $225 +$139 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $231 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $164 +$159 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $187 +$291 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $124 +$199 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $270 −$68 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $90 −$89 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$201 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records