Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x146d…f09a crypto 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,414 (+13%) realized +$1,414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate68%370W / 177L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$699
14 days+$693
30 days+$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$1,222
sports 41% +$61
weather 2% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +17.2% +6.0% 63% 60% +11.2%
≤30d 300 +14.2% +3.3% 61% 60% +8.3%
≤90d 547 +10.1% -0.4% 68% 61% +1.5%
all 547 +10.1% -0.4% 68% 61% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 61% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 49% -8.3%
15% -18.6% 31% -17.1%
20% -26.6% 21% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses370 / 177
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)547 / 547
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 547 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $73 +$27 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $6 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $41 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Jun 28 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$25 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$9 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$4 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $33 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$6 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 45¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 57¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 62¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 64¢ $11 58m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 81¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 67¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? SELL No 22¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 75¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 84¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 48¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 44¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 39¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 39¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? SELL Yes 76¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records