Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x146d…17c7
other · 138 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11,454 -55%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,105 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,066
Realized−$11,105
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses24 / 441
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions51
Markets (closed)465 / 138
Avg bet$152
Trades / day188.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%
Chart Positions 51 History 465 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,537
7 days−$15,537
14 days−$12,912
30 days−$11,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $791 $1,113 +$322 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 31¢ 67¢ $216 $460 +$244 (+113%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $243 $160 −$83 (-34%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $83 $53 −$29 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $143 $41 −$102 (-72%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $142 $29 −$113 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-9%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+68%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $86 $9 −$77 (-89%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+168%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 81¢ 52¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-85%)
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$125 +440%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Award Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1,042 −$405 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Sinners" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$82 +1367%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January Jun 12 $1 +$8 +1281%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Billy Crudup win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awa Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$127 -291%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 26 - 50 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$4,108
politics 4% +$148
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $170 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $170 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3h
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $40 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $49 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $98 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $98 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $95 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $90 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $72 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 13h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 23¢ $46 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -69.1% -72.0% 4% 4% -68.0%
≤30d 465 -65.3% -68.6% 5% 5% -37.2%
≤90d 465 -65.3% -68.6% 5% 5% -37.2%
all 465 -65.3% -68.6% 5% 5% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover188.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.6% 5% -37.2%
10% ← realistic here -71.6% 5% -43.2%
15% -74.4% 5% -48.7%
20% -76.9% 5% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,065.88 · official $2,110.92 · 3500 history records