Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x146f…3358
crypto · 638 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$142 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses274 / 363
Open positions1
Markets (closed)637 / 638
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 637 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$89
14 days−$100
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$31
weather 41% −$105
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 429 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 38% -18.7%
≤30d 637 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 36% -19.1%
≤90d 637 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 36% -19.1%
all 637 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 36% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 36% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 24% -26.8%
15% -35.3% 17% -33.9%
20% -41.7% 13% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1454 history records