Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x1473…6f49 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$773 (-37%) realized −$253 · open −$520
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$780
sports 20% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -6.9% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 1 -6.9% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
all 6 -65.3% -68.6% 0% 0% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.6% 0% -28.3%
10% -71.6% 0% -35.1%
15% -74.4% 0% -41.4%
20% -76.9% 0% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$48 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$520
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage132d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 4¢ $193 $166 −$28 (-14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $500 $7 −$493 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $427 −$29 -7%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $100 −$79 -80%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 05 $728 −$40 -6%
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zimbabwe win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $199 1h
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL No 2¢ $17 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 5¢ $22 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 6¢ $51 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL No 10¢ $110 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 11¢ $51 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY No 14¢ $103 29d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 29d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $500 104d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 113d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 113d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $261 116d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 120d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $159 120d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $228 120d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $226 120d
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 126d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 126d
Will Zimbabwe win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 126d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 126d
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 131d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $400 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.06 · official $173.06 (match) · 23 history records