Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1474…6e7a other 70 markets active 2d ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$19
politics 15% +$1
tech 9% −$3
world 7% +$2
sports 5% −$3
economics 5% +$13
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.6% -28.1% 54% 54% -31.1%
≤30d 14 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 57% -30.5%
≤90d 28 -26.3% -33.3% 46% 46% -33.6%
all 61 +6.1% -4.0% 64% 56% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 56% -14.6%
10% -13.2% 44% -22.8%
15% -21.5% 38% -30.3%
20% -29.2% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)61 / 70
History coverage245d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Yes 56¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $8 +$5 +62%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? May 09 $1 $0 +49%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? May 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? May 09 $2 +$2 +117%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $1 $0 -42%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bears vs. Commanders Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +53%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 16 $1 $0 -42%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +8%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $1 +$6 +624%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $1 +$1 +76%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 02 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Jan 30 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 30 $3 +$1 +22%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 30 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 16 $1 $0 +4%
Erdoğan out in 2025? Jan 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $1 +$1 +116%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $2 +$4 +195%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-11-07? Nov 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 6d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 39d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 39d
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 60d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $8 105d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.79 · official $30.80 (match) · 198 history records