Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1476…17be other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$102
sports 31% −$36
world 2% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -7.2% -16.0% 68% 32% -8.0%
≤30d 34 -7.2% -16.0% 68% 32% -8.0%
≤90d 34 -7.2% -16.0% 68% 32% -8.0%
all 34 -7.2% -16.0% 68% 32% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 32% -8.0%
10% -24.1% 15% -16.8%
15% -31.4% 9% -24.9%
20% -38.1% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 89¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $300 +$14 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $301 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $50 −$14 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $161 +$12 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 −$19 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 +$21 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$21 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $76 +$11 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $79 −$3 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 +$12 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $52 +$4 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$14 -72%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$8 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $45 −$32 -71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $314 21m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY No 90¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 65¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $300 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $161 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 20¢ $6 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $25 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $172 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $100 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $101 27h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 89¢ $5 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $50 39h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $49 39h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $81 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $76 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 86¢ $76 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $79 46h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $70 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $76 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $64 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.02 · official $74.02 (match) · 78 history records