Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1477…17e4 crypto 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$814 (-1%) realized −$822 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%575W / 322L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days−$786
14 days−$1,770
30 days−$1,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$2,477
world 17% +$596
politics 5% +$97
finance 1% +$74
other 1% +$15
culture 1% +$73
tech 0% +$9
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 62% -13.9%
≤30d 735 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 59% -11.8%
≤90d 897 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 52% -11.2%
all 897 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 52% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 46% -19.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$822
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses575 / 322
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)897 / 900
History coverage63d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $200 $234 +$34 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 66¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 78¢ 68¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $85 −$84 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $136 −$33 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $84 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $117 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$19 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$24 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $147 −$46 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $114 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$22 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $132 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$31 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$28 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $85 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $85 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $74 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $64 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $65 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $108 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.22 · official $458.22 (match) · 3280 history records