Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1479…dbc7 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+1%) realized +$155 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%22W / 67L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$14
other 18% +$42
politics 14% −$9
sports 4% +$134
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 15% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 60 +2.4% -7.3% 18% 13% -9.9%
all 89 +9.5% -0.9% 25% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 17% -8.9%
10% -10.4% 17% -17.7%
15% -19.1% 15% -25.6%
20% -27.0% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses22 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage620d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $157 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $291 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $8 +$5 +70%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $235 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $26 2h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $9 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $156 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $7 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.34 · official $156.34 (match) · 318 history records