Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x147c…2dac crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$340 (-5%) realized −$433 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%118W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days−$335
14 days−$335
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$655
other 2% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -8.4% -17.2% 46% 28% -18.7%
≤30d 46 -8.4% -17.2% 46% 28% -18.7%
≤90d 229 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 38% -18.3%
all 229 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 38% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 26% -26.2%
15% -36.0% 17% -33.3%
20% -42.3% 13% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$433
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses118 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage46d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 64¢ $0 $93 +$93 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$25 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $67 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $154 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $138 −$22 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $135 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$48 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $129 −$42 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $109 −$103 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $47 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $165 +$26 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $140 −$63 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $87 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$13 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$33 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$26 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$29 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 36m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 39m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $52 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $19 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $24 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.38 · official $96.32 · 1234 history records