Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x147d…7c03 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$405 (-10%) realized −$367 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%49W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$68
14 days−$201
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$472
sports 32% −$70
world 4% +$55
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤30d 55 +5.5% -4.6% 47% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 102 +17.6% +6.4% 48% 44% -20.0%
all 102 +17.6% +6.4% 48% 44% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 44% -20.0%
10% -3.8% 42% -27.7%
15% -13.1% 31% -34.7%
20% -21.6% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$26 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses49 / 53
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage64d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ $60 $22 −$38 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$49 +48%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $75 +$24 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$18 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$50 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 −$22 -54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $24 +$26 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$17 -17%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $131 +$65 +50%
San Marino leading at halftime? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Bangladesh leading at halftime? Jun 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $101 −$14 -14%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 05 $127 +$87 +68%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $51 +$35 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $50 −$13 -25%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $71 +$17 +24%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh - Completed mat Jun 02 $101 +$26 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $59 +$59 +101%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $31 −$9 -29%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $41 −$3 -7%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 01 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8 +$34 +413%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$6 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $39 +$36 +93%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $27 +$5 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 +$13 +81%
Will FC Ōsaka vs. Reilac Shiga end in a draw? May 30 $9 +$7 +74%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $44 −$26 -61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $20 −$8 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $150 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh $1 9h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $75 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $39 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $18 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $40 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 11d
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 12d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 38¢ $85 12d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 12d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 98¢ $197 12d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 12d
San Marino leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 12d
Bangladesh leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 12d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 68¢ $86 12d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.52 · official $21.52 (match) · 212 history records