Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x147e…418e crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%140W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$35
14 days+$25
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$7
sports 14% −$9
other 7% −$34
world 6% +$34
politics 2% −$15
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -5.8% -14.8% 63% 60% -1.9%
≤30d 229 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 59% -13.9%
≤90d 229 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 59% -13.9%
all 229 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 59% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 59% -13.9%
10% -25.6% 57% -22.2%
15% -32.8% 56% -29.7%
20% -39.4% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses140 / 89
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$26 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$45 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$35 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$7 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 98¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 79¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records