trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $7 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 09 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $45 | −$1 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Dec 12 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 12 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 17 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 19 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 23% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 23% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 24 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 54% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.4% |