Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1486…cef3 sports 1112 markets active 2d ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 186d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$670 (-0%) realized −$670 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate59%660W / 452L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$724
14 days−$1,041
30 days−$960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$329
sports 9% −$525
crypto 6% −$1
tech 5% −$5
culture 1% −$20
weather 1% +$7
politics 0% +$5
world 0% −$16
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 385 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 31% -16.7%
≤30d 713 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 34% -15.1%
≤90d 830 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 30% -12.5%
all 1112 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 22% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 22% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 19% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 15% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$670
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses660 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1112 / 1112
History coverage186d ⚠
Avg bet$132
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $597 −$234 -39%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$40 +78%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$24 -48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$10 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 +$3 +13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$13 +40%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$16 -31%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$11 -23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$65 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$7 +43%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $49 +$58 +119%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $15 +$43 +282%
Astakhova vs. Basiletti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$13 +63%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$9 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$42 +388%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $60 +$38 +63%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $25 −$11 -43%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $17 −$5 -30%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $17 −$3 -15%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $17 −$3 -20%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $17 −$4 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $364 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $211 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $60 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $327 38h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 36¢ $15 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $11 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $11 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $16 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $12 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $12 39h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 88¢ $9 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $51 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $29 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $13 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $57 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 56¢ $12 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $9 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $0 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $11 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $2 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3486 history records