Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x148a…7e84 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$709 (-26%) realized −$704 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$673
politics 31% −$23
sports 19% +$6
crypto 6% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 22 -11.9% -20.3% 32% 18% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 18% -32.3%
10% -27.9% 18% -38.8%
15% -34.9% 18% -44.7%
20% -41.3% 18% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$54 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$704
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage675d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $303 −$43 -14%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Feb 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 19 $350 −$17 -5%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jan 15 $87 −$20 -24%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 31 $200 −$135 -68%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 31 $50 +$2 +4%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 31 $100 −$72 -72%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $443 −$270 -61%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $10 +$12 +124%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Oct 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 28 $400 −$41 -10%
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e Oct 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Oct 28 $9 $0 -4%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 28 $40 −$34 -84%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 28 $20 −$17 -86%
Dolphins vs. Falcons Oct 26 $20 +$63 +317%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Oct 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b? Nov 08 $87 −$87 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 08 $22 +$12 +53%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $8 +$8 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland SELL Canada 98¢ $94 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 76¢ $73 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland SELL Finland 26¢ $55 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 62¢ $20 123d
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia SELL Slovakia 12¢ $37 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 61¢ $110 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland SELL Canada 41¢ $111 123d
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia BUY Slovakia 13¢ $40 123d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 37¢ $100 123d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $333 155d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $350 156d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? SELL No 32¢ $66 159d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 42¢ $87 161d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes $65 235d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 235d
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No $28 235d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY Yes $43 237d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 237d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 237d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $264 238d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL Yes 25¢ $173 238d
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e SELL Yes 26¢ $22 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.97 · official $394.98 (match) · 62 history records