Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x148c…eece other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+10%) realized +$140 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%46W / 31L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$13
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$204
sports 13% −$52
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 44% -8.0%
≤30d 53 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 64 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 47% -0.8%
all 77 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 52% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 52% -0.0%
10% -13.5% 40% -9.6%
15% -21.8% 30% -18.3%
20% -29.5% 26% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses46 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)77 / 86
History coverage124d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$7 +7%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $103 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $85 +$8 +10%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $80 +$15 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$38 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 +$16 +510%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 +$21 +141%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +146%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -49%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$6 +187%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 47m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 4h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $20 6h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $103 9h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 11h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $75 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.23 · official $214.26 (match) · 253 history records